Rhys Ifans would be the nearest, but I agree with SP; none of the above is quite right, adorable as many are.
A quick look back will confirm that the great doctors (Hartnell, Troughton, Pertwee, Baker, Tennant) all have large/pointed noses, and are generally a bit angular. Eccleston was the exception that proves the rule.
On that basis Tamsin Greig would be spot on. Of the people apparently in the frame, David Morrissey and Patterson Joseph wouldn't tick the box. But Julian Rhind-Tutt does. Not that I'm biassed or anything...
I think Bill Nighy would be excellent if a slightly older Doctor was required.