Someone asked me the interesting question recently "Do you think social media is just a passing phase?", which made me think. Why is it that this new social behaviour online has taken off so overwhelmingly that it is now estimated that by 2010, 70 percent of all online content will be user-generated?

 Until now, communication can be seen as two broadly distinct streams - conversation and communication. Conversation being an interaction between a few people, and communication allowing a message to be broadcast to many people yet with little or no interaction.

1. Conversation has evolved to allow increasing distances to be incorporated into conversation, from talking, through the invention of the telegraph, the telephone and of course email.

2. Communication can be seen as evolving from the town crier, rapidly increasing the speed, complexity and reach of the communication.  First up was the revolution created by Johannes Gutenberg as the printing press was developed, then radio, then television and finally web.

Social media is the first time in history that the two streams have come together, allowing mass conversations to happen.  I think we are only just beginning to see the real impact of this revolution in behaviours, now we can evolve a conversation, our thinking and our perspectives not just in conversation with one or two others, but with thousands of people simultaneously.  Google Wave looks like a possible contender for the next phase in this development, but it is now just taking the principles of simultaneous massive conversations forward in more innovative ways.

So yes, I do think social media is here to stay.