Media Week

So how long did it take for the world’s advertising outlook to turn to mush? Less than seven months if this week’s dramatically revised forecasts by Carat are anything to go by.

The last time the Aegis agency kindly shone its specialist light onto global ad spend was 27 August 2008. Back then, the agency cautiously downgraded its 2009 worldwide prediction from 4.9% growth to 4.8%.One winter, seven months and several bank collapses later, and the picture is decidedly darker.

Carat now expects global ad spend to fall 5.8% this year, with drops in every major market except China.More specifically, rather than the UK enjoying 2.2% growth tipped last summer, we can now expect the market to contract 7.1%, according to the agency; a huge revision with far reaching implications. And many believe it’s  still optimistic.

Let's not forget this already follows drops of 5.5% in UK ad spend in 2008, the biggest decline of any major market other than Spain.

Of course, Carat’s just the first of many advertising forecasters set to be woefully out of kilter in 2009, underlining the speed with which advertising conditions deteriorated in the second half of 2008.

But you can hear the resignation of a lead agency baffled when the normally bullish CEO of Aegis Media, Jerry Buhlmann, cushions this latest report with the disclaimer "of course, these predictions themselves are just that: our best guess at this point in time, in a market we know to be uncertain".

Congratulations must go to Associated’s Metro, which celebrates 10 years in circulation today.

The free city-based spoiler to Sweden’s Metro International has defied the critics, and the odds, and managed to carve out a niche for a daily title that encapsulates news-lite, as seen on TV and global wires the night before.

When first launched in London on 16 March 1999, Metro had a print circulation of 85,000, distributed through some 70 underground stations in the heart of the capital.

Ten years on, and the now all too familiar blue masthead boasts a circulation of 1.3 million and more than3.3 million readers.

It is distributed in every major UK city, including London, Brighton, Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds, Glasgow and Cardiff.

In today’s celebratory issue, the paper proudly lists the stories it has carried over the years under the banner ‘You read it here’ (no sign of the word ‘first’). Included in its array of achievements is last month’s revelation “Feb 2 – Snow covers much of Britain”.

But while its content, buoyed by page 3 staples about giant toads, homes built for smurfs, killer crayfish and things to do with old copies of Metro, may not be award-winning stuff, the deals that have helped propel the title have been impressive.

Realising its potential if it moves beyond the capital, Associated embarked on an ambitious expansion strategy. But when faced with the realisation that most pockets of the UK are sown up by strong regional newspaper operations, the group managed to broker a series of innovative partnerships.

It is something Metro International has been trying, and failing, to do in Germany for more than a decade.

Today, the free paper is in bed with Trinity Mirror, Northcliffe Media, Johnson Press and the Guardian Media Group. It also publishes in Dublin through a joint venture with Irish Times and is part of a European sell through a deal with Metro International.

With its network of eyeballs in place, Metro was able to double its ad rates by the middle of the decade, claiming unprecedented access to the elusive, young professionals.

Its commercial drive has also resulted in some genuine market-leading solutions, including Metro’s ‘Brand to Hand’ sampling business (Yorkie, 2002); the Metro Rough Guide partnership (Post Office, 2004); wraps on high grade glossy paper (BA, 2005); and even wraps incorporating lenticular holographic images (Sony Ericsson, 2008).

Managing director Steve Auckland rightly acknowledges that Metro has become an “invaluable part of the journey for commuters in the UK”, and is now the fourth largest national newspaper in the country, “with over 3.3m readers daily”.

But to survive the next 10, the paper can't afford for its achievements to end there. The well publicised profitability it reached in 2003, is now under serious threat following double-digit declines in advertising, while a revitalised Evening Standard, under new Russian rule, will also be hoping to make a sizeable dent in its London operations. The next round begins with a public fight to retain its TfL contract.

Happy Birthday Metro, here's to those teenage years.

Bauer’s decision to close Arena today shuts the chapter on a 22-year-old rollercoaster ride never before seen in men’s magazines.

When Arena first hit the newsstands in the winter of 1986 the UK and its media was a very different place.

The year had started with the unveiling of ambitious plans to connect with mainland Europe via an undersea railway line called the Channel Tunnel, and had gone on to witness the marriage of Prince Andrew to one Sarah Ferguson.

There was a confident, capitalist swagger that seeped into ever part of society. Socks were fluorescent, gloves had no fingers and the likes of Madonna, Europe (Final Countdown) and Berlin (Take my Breath Away) provided the sound track.

Into this mix enters Arena, initially a quarterly magazine launched with the novel idea of targeting British males. The front cover of the launch issue featured a fresh-faced exciting young actor called Mickey Rourke.

It offered an eclectic mix of quintessential ‘male things’, including features on shaving, suits, Mike Tyson and, of course, supercars. But there was also recognition of the less obvious parts of the male-psyche – the low down on Paris, collectable art and, er, Joe Orton.

It’s easy to forget how ground-breaking it was to have a monthly lifestyle magazine specifically for men, who at the time were more concerned with hating Argentina’s cheating Diego Maradona. It was of the moment, a style magazine for men just when cash-rich British males were starting to really care about fashion, brands and lifestyle choices.

The brainchild of Nick Logan, the man behind Face magazine which had already made magazines more paletable to British males, it quickly cut a swathe through the women with big hair on the front covers of Vogue, Cosmopolitan and the like.

With no direct competitors, circulation soon soared past 60,000 and by the start of the 1990s was selling more than 90,000 copies each issue. Its rise was enough to prompt early investor Conde Nast to launch a British version of GQ in 1989, which quickly assumed top dog position.

NatMags’ Esquire also followed and while Logan didn’t know it, the magazine had already had its heyday.

Throughout the last decade, strong competition from both online and in print has seen Arena’s circulation tumble. By 2007, despite numerous redesigns and repositionings the magazine was still struggling to maintain circulation above 30,000, an important figure for any would-be advertiser.

In the last year the magazine has been further squeezed by friendly-fire, with Bauer's other monthly FHM deciding to move into its more upmarket territory too.

In February’s ABC report for the second half of 2008 Arena's circulation was up 16.4% year on year to 29,374, but the figure masked the fact only 17,000 were being  actively purchased.

The writing has long been on the wall for Britain’s longest-running men’s monthly, as clear as over-sized 80s graffiti.