Steve Barrett

From the editor of Media Week

It's the biggest topic of conversation on everyone's lips - in offices, shops, factories and homes throughout the land. There's no point ignoring it and hoping it will go away, the credit crunch - or financial crisis - will dominate business for at least the next two years.

And it's not a case of talking ourselves into a recession: our sector doesn't operate in a bubble and the wider economy affects our industry in many ways.

So, apart from deifying BBC business guru Robert Peston, what does the global financial crisis mean for media and what should our industry be doing about it?

First, there are obvious implications for media agencies with clients in banking, property, financial services and motoring - all areas where brands could disappear, merge or pull in their horns.

 

Then there are the media owners and advertisers whose businesses are predicated on significant levels of debt and exposure to the financial sector. Debt will be increasingly difficult to service and cheap credit a rare commodity.

ZenithOptimedia's latest advertising expenditure growth forecast for 2008 - released today - revises its prediction for the UK market down from 2.4% real growth to a 2.1% real decline, principally due to the worsening economic climate. Taking online out of the equation - tipped to expand 21% in 2008 - market decline will be 5.8%, compared to June's prediction of a 2.4% fall. Apart from online, only cinema can look forward to immediate growth. Many media owners have already streamlined and restructured for the new environment. Media agencies will follow suit.

Zenith forecasts that ad spend will be 0.9% of global GDP in 2009, compared to 1.04% in 1990 and 1.05% in 2000. The Publicis network's EMEA chief executive Steve King suggests ad spend levels are more sustainable than in previous downturns, which show those brands that keep their nerve and continue to advertise and those media owners that keep focusing on quality will profit in the long term.

One thing's for sure, leaner, meaner and fitter media businesses will emerge. It's time to concentrate on fundamentals, stay strong and avoid the temptation to cut the engines of sales growth that will enable brands to come out the other end fighting.

 

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