"Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist." J M Keynes Steiff, the German maker of teddy bears, is re-locating production back to Germany from China because, in their own words: "cost isn't everything". Ref: Financial Times (UK) - from Brainmail [On the bailout of AIG] "It's a little scary that the world's largest insurance company hasn't planned for a rainy day." Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution (www.marginalrevolution.com) "The economic fallout from these events is dominating the headlines. The intellectual and ideological fallout we are just beginning to contemplate." ibid
"Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist." J M Keynes
Steiff, the German maker of teddy bears, is re-locating production back to Germany from China because, in their own words: "cost isn't everything".
[On the bailout of AIG] "It's a little scary that the world's largest insurance company hasn't planned for a rainy day." Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution (www.marginalrevolution.com)
"The economic fallout from these events is dominating the headlines. The intellectual and ideological fallout we are just beginning to contemplate." ibid
Based in Canary Wharf, as we are, it would be impossible for us not to have noticed the change in mood in the last few weeks. It is, in some ways, an improvement. The parking at Sevenoaks station is more plentiful, for a start. And, once in Canary Wharf, there is finally something interesting to look at. My biggest complaint about E14 (aside, that is, from the E and the 14) was there was never any pleasure to be derived from people-watching there. Anywhere else in London, the passing cast of characters provides endless entertainment, even scope for Sherlockian speculation about their lives. Out here the opportunities for detective work are few: "Dr Watson, save that our caller was young, slim, a banker, ambitious, a gym-goer, materialistic, a BMW driver and a bit of a twat, I fear that there is little I can deduce from his general appearance. Now pray pass the syringe......"
Today the mood is a little more self-aware, and the expressions on the faces more interesting. "I notice from your large cardboard box and fraught demeanour that you were until today an employee of the Lehman brothers' once respectable bank." But it is a little too easy to be mean. Occasionally I travel in to work on a 7am train from Kent, a journey which teaches you that for every Master of the Universe with a six-figure bonus there are ranks of overworked, not particularly well-paid drudges living month to month like anyone else.
Yet if there is one welcome casualty of this crisis it is the widespread and unquestioned belief that unending growth is the only proper pursuit of any business, and that a business has no responsibility other than to its shareholders.
I am not saying this belief is necessarily wrong, by the way. I am merely suggesting it is worth debating - and should not be treated as axiomatic. And it needs to be questioned a little more now, when the businesses who have most enthusiastically espoused this particular ideal seem suddenly to be desperate for government help.
The economist who seems to have started this whole shareholders-first-and-last assumption is Milton Friedman. Yet even on the Libertarian right his assertion is the subject of much vigorous debate. Here's John Mackey, the avidly pro-free-market founder of Whole Foods.
In 1970 Milton Friedman wrote that “there is one and only one social responsibility of business–to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud.” That’s the orthodox view among free market economists: that the only social responsibility a law-abiding business has is to maximize profits for the shareholders. I strongly disagree. I’m a businessman and a free market libertarian, but I believe that the enlightened corporation should try to create value for all of its constituencies. From an investor’s perspective, the purpose of the business is to maximize profits. But that’s not the purpose for other stakeholders–for customers, employees, suppliers, and the community. Each of those groups will define the purpose of the business in terms of its own needs and desires, and each perspective is valid and legitimate.
In 1970 Milton Friedman wrote that “there is one and only one social responsibility of business–to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits so long as it stays within the rules of the game, which is to say, engages in open and free competition without deception or fraud.” That’s the orthodox view among free market economists: that the only social responsibility a law-abiding business has is to maximize profits for the shareholders.
I strongly disagree. I’m a businessman and a free market libertarian, but I believe that the enlightened corporation should try to create value for all of its constituencies. From an investor’s perspective, the purpose of the business is to maximize profits. But that’s not the purpose for other stakeholders–for customers, employees, suppliers, and the community. Each of those groups will define the purpose of the business in terms of its own needs and desires, and each perspective is valid and legitimate.
He goes on:
I believe [our philanthropic] programs would be completely justifiable even if they produced no profits and no P.R. This is because I believe the entrepreneurs, not the current investors in a company’s stock, have the right and responsibility to define the purpose of the company. It is the entrepreneurs who create a company, who bring all the factors of production together and coordinate it into viable business. It is the entrepreneurs who set the company strategy and who negotiate the terms of trade with all of the voluntarily cooperating stakeholders–including the investors. At Whole Foods we “hired” our original investors. They didn’t hire us. The shareholders of a public company own their stock voluntarily. If they don’t agree with the philosophy of the business, they can always sell their investment, just as the customers and employees can exit their relationships with the company if they don’t like the terms of trade. If that is unacceptable to them, they always have the legal right to submit a resolution at our annual shareholders meeting to change the company’s philanthropic philosophy.
I believe [our philanthropic] programs would be completely justifiable even if they produced no profits and no P.R. This is because I believe the entrepreneurs, not the current investors in a company’s stock, have the right and responsibility to define the purpose of the company. It is the entrepreneurs who create a company, who bring all the factors of production together and coordinate it into viable business. It is the entrepreneurs who set the company strategy and who negotiate the terms of trade with all of the voluntarily cooperating stakeholders–including the investors. At Whole Foods we “hired” our original investors. They didn’t hire us.
The shareholders of a public company own their stock voluntarily. If they don’t agree with the philosophy of the business, they can always sell their investment, just as the customers and employees can exit their relationships with the company if they don’t like the terms of trade. If that is unacceptable to them, they always have the legal right to submit a resolution at our annual shareholders meeting to change the company’s philanthropic philosophy.
And.....
....turn to one of the fathers of free-market economics, Adam Smith. The Wealth of Nations was a tremendous achievement, but economists would be well served to read Smith’s other great book, The Theory of Moral Sentiments. There he explains that human nature isn’t just about self-interest. It also includes sympathy, empathy, friendship, love, and the desire for social approval. As motives for human behavior, these are at least as important as self-interest. For many people, they are more important.
He is suggesting that the assumption that a business can be judged on its recent financial performance and nothing else seems open to question on several levels. I would add a few more.....
Most of us pay in advertising pay unquestioning lip-service to the idea of shareholder value being the one desirable purpose for any business, our own included. Are we right? Or are we just the "unwitting slaves of some defunct economist"? Let me know what you think.
I think you raise some good points. I would like to add to some of them.
Point 1. The challenge with spreadsheets, and predictive marketed research is that they are all forecasts, and as Stewart Brand said the challenge with forecasts is that all forecasts are wrong. Lets not even mention the bugs that people put into the spreadsheets. Find me an excel spreadsheet without a significant error in the formula.
There is an advantage in using $£ and € to compare apples and oranges in that the problem _should_ become simpler, and that _should_ mean we can try to understand it. $£ and € enable us to create a model that we can use to explain the behaviour. But we run in trouble when we try to use the model instead to forecast the behaviour. Models are simulations, and not forecasts. They are very useful if you understand the limitations of them, dangerous if used the wrong way.
Point 2. See the book published in the 70's by the tribologist Martin Page "The Company Savage" where he shows most people in business are not motivated by money but by wanting a tribal sense of belonging. My dad said that both tribes and corporations are a group of people who superstitiously believe that, together, they add up to more than the sum of their individual beings. Both have a spirit. Tribes call this the Tribal Spirit, in Corporations it is called the Company Spirit.
Point 3. There is much obscurity and lack of transparency in business. I often feel that the point of many business through their marketing are there to confuse the simple consumer like me. Try working out which airline is better value to fly on. Try comparing the airlines frequent flyer offers. Try comparing Credit Cards. As Scott Adams has said we have moved from monopolies to confuseoplies.
Are we better off looking back again at what Schumacher said in Small Is Beautiful? see: en.wikipedia.org/.../Small_is_Beautiful How much does the value of the firm break down in this new Internet age where the benefits of being large, under Coase's law are diminished. see: en.wikipedia.org/.../Ronald_Coase
Does the internet reduce the effect of Coase's law? Or do firms stay large as people want to stay in large tribes?
James
Funny. Ron Coase (who is still alive, amazingly) was the person I was going to mention next. I think you're right - the internet must reduce the need for the large firm.
Have a look at the FT article (it may be gated) "Nintendo makes more profit per employee than Goldman" for an example of Small is Beautiful.
The article "Nintendo makes more profit per employee than Goldman" www.ft.com/.../9d9624a4-8341-11dd-907e-000077b07658.html is not behind the pay wall.
It is interesting. I also wonder how many programmers Goldman have compared to Nintendo? Somebody told me that Barclays had more programmers than Microsoft.
The "small is Beautiful" comes into play with the hedge funds, the hedge funds are not cause of current financial firms is it is the big banks. I wonder how many of people at these large firms really understand the limits of the models that they are using?
On point 3: a profit only approach is arguably as much a failure of regulation as anything else. The problem in banking is that traders can make fortunes by gambling massively with their employers capital, so they have a giant upside. If they screw up (legally but just incompetently) then the worst they face is the sack. So no giant downside. Management cannot and will not control this as they are the chief beneficiaries.
and it might be that consumers implicitly understand that some ecomonic activties just might be better done by the state. One reason why the markets reacted so positively to the nationalization of Fannie and Freddie was that they realized that the state is a more secure source of mortgage finance than the private sector. I daresay Northern Rock's customers now feel an awful lot safer now it's been nationalised.
But the asymmetry of banking remuneration is a product of people's misunderstanding Friedman. "I have made a lot of money this year therefore I have done a good job."
This sentence is not necessarily wrong, I might add, but it is always debatable.
Surprising no-one has mentioned Nicholas Taleb's Black Swan in all this, now we've got onto forecasting (or should we call it crystal-ball-gazing?' He argues, pretty cogently, that most soical and economic analysis has been enslaved by a single, inadequate category of mathematical models (basically Gaussian, and relying excessively on the so-called normal curve), with the result that people are regularly defeated by the unexpected event that turns everything upside down...
I think it is worth bringing John Maynard Keynes who Rory quoted at the top, and said many years before Nicholas Taleb :-
"A conventional valuation which is established as the outcome of the mass psychology of a large number of ignorant individuals is liable to change violently as the result of a sudden fluctuation of opinion due to factors which do not really make much difference to the prospective yield; since there will be no strong roots of conviction to hold it steady."
Chapter 12 of The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.
See: www.marxists.org/.../ch12.htm
Most of the financial wizardry in the city was magic not science. It is fine to look at the normal curve as long as you don't ignore type I and type II errors. Black Swan is a Type II error. Calculating the type II error is very hard. Trying to explain to a trader what a type I and type II error is even harder.
The model are not inadequate, it is just that people have problems understanding the limits of them. The easiest way is thinking of them as simulations and not forecasts.
its not growth. it used to be value. now its 'authentic value' - we are seeing this (Bill gates / creative capitalism)
capitalism is not dead. if anything capitalism needs to be saved from the 'capitalists'. two words 'obsolete economics'. we now live in a brave new world - with fundamentally new strategy and new scarce resources. like - 'purpose and authentic value' this is now the most scarce resource in the value-chain - not short term shareholder value.
this 'strategic purpose' is the only resource that firms require to- re-inventing and re-organize the world's production on our planet (sustainable). you cant fight deep economics!
in my previous life i set up a global research division for what eventually became in 6months the largest independent global provider of research for credit derivatives. anyhoo. the credit markets are opaque and building a clearing house is difficult (very difficult). thankfully, a few years ago i took my money and ran
so why didnt adam smith's invisible free hand help out? well...
are markets immoral - yes.
are markets irrational - yes.
do markets need heavy regulation - no
do they need supervision - yes
do markets need to be curated and nurtured - yes.
I completely agree - as a consultant myself i'm often frustrated at the solely pecuniary focus of most business.
It sounds like what you're describing is triple-bottom-line reporting - an absolutely fantastic idea that very few companies appear to have heard of, let alone adopted.
Let's hope this recent bruhaha serves as an object lesson on what happens when we become overly focused on one thing...
thank you for this piece Rory, I found it fascinating. The idea that the intellectual and ideological fallout to the current situation is just beginning is deliciously thought provoking.
If it leads to some kind of reassessment of how we as society value a brod range of issues, then I think this turmoil will have been partially constructive. I live in Australia and am regularly subjected to newspaper headlines such as
"Cost of truancy put at $5bn annually"
"Obesity problem a $15bn issue"
"Drug abuse costs economy $500m"
as if the only way to dramatise the gravity of a social issue is to do so in financial terms.
I realise my point is tangental, but it points to part of the same problem, which is the degree to which society measures value in very limited financial terms
Rory Sutherland
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