In mobile, as in any other sector, a downturn – if you have the cash – is the best time to be buying.
Sir Martin Sorrell is a name it’s always far too easy to drop. Nonetheless, here we go, CLANG! When I interviewed him a couple of years ago his view on whether there would be another dotcom ‘crash’ was simple: “If there is, we’ll view it as an opportunity to buy.”
The long-term trend in digital, as he’d not failed to identify, was up and up some more so any time a dip came along it was a chance to pick up routes to growth and expertise while prices were lower.
Mobile is also a dead cert for long-term growth and it's also gathering pace just as online was (through the rise of search) when the last crash came upon us. When things get back on a more even keel, some more substance will have been added to its device-led style, which means any investments made now (think mobile search, TV and applications) will look very wise in a couple of years’ time.
One example is how the networks are using the global downturn to pick up networks for good prices in emerging markets. Three of the biggest (Norway's Telenor, Japan’s NTT DoCoMo, and United Arab Emirates-based Etisalat) have already invested in India where mobile ownership is still only 25%. Another is News Corp's acquisition of Jamba that we talked about a few weeks ago.
Any recession is a real horror because it helps to widen further the gap between rich and poor. If, for example, I had a wad of cash to spare, I’d be scooping up houses at low prices (and low rates of interest) ready to generate further wads when the market rebounds. The media industry’s rich - and there are still a few - should look to do the same in mobile.
