Breaking news

Seth Godin recently predicted that by 2012 "there will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US".

Now whilst that may be sensationalistic in terms of timescale - there is no doubt that the newspaper industry is in trouble. In the six months to March of this year the decline in US newspaper weekday circulation almost doubled (Source: Bloomberg) and a number of historic US newspaper titles have already hit financial trouble.

Yes the recession has hit media spend - but the core issue is that more & more consumers are getting their news from the internet.

But that's not really new news. What is new is how the internet is increasingly becoming the source for breaking news.

Last Thursday night I was doing some things around the house with BBC News 24 on in the background. But rather than seeing a journalist on the screen - there was a caption with an image of the TMZ.com site leading with the news of Michael Jackson's death. For the next couple of hours the BBC's news was simply reporting on the news from TMZ and the LA Times. Mainstream news media reporting breaking internet news.

In September last year, Robert Peston chose his blog to announce the proposed Lloyds/HBOS merger before breaking the news on BBC.

More recently, with reporting restrictions in place, the news from Iran has been lead by blogs, Tweets and videos from people on the streets.

In a 24-hour global news cycle no single news organisation is going to have the coverage to capture every breaking news story. So thanks to Twitter, blogs & the camera-phone the power of the consumer-journalist is massive. News can be broken by anywhere, anywhere, at any time.

Social media is increasingly driving the news agenda.

The challenge for the established media therefore becomes two-fold:

• How do they drive revenue from their online properties,
  
• How do they continue to verify the myriad of consumer-journalist sources?

Are decision engines the Emperor's new clothes?

It's been a big month for 'decision engines'.

First we had the build-up and launch of Wolfram-Alpha as mentioned a few weeks ago and now we have the launch of Microsoft's own decision engine called 'Bing'. Bing went live last week, a couple of days early. The earlier-than-planned-launch is a strong indication of the effort Microsoft has put behind it. Let's not forget how important Bing is to Microsoft. The majority of Microsoft's recent challenges to Google's search and online advertising dominance have failed to make an impact on their market share. Bing is the successor to Microsoft's Live Search. But what's different? And what exactly are 'decision engines', a term so new that there isn't a Wikipedia entry to define them yet?

Decision Engines are being positioned as the evolution of search. Whereas search engines 'simply' (and I use the word advisedly) return the closest match to a given search term, decision engines move us closer towards the 'semantic web' and artificial intelligence by using contextual information, together with the results of previous user's searches, to provide more accurate and more helpful results. Well that's the theory anyway.

But do either Wolfram Alpha or Bing live up to this?

Wolfram Alpha has hit the 100 million query mark, but getting an answer to your question is still quite hit and miss. It's actually quite difficult to think of a useful query that Wolfram Alpha has an answer for. Many questions still get a "Wolfram Alpha isn't sure what to do with your input".

Bing on the other hand might well be trying to position itself as a 'decision engine' but it's not as revolutionary as its pre-launch billing. It's more of an evolution of search, attempting to improve on Google's offering.

And there are some nice features: the image search allows you to filter images by size, style, layout etc. A neat feature. The video shortcuts allows you to play the video by just rolling over the image thumbnail in the search. But Bing has been criticised for delivering poorer results than Google. For a neat way of comparing Google and Bing, Blackdog have created a split screen site to search both sites at the same time.

Will it be enough to make inroads into Google's market share? Only time will tell. But from first impressions it's just not significantly different or better than Google to shift consumer behaviour.

There is a danger that the term Decision Engine is being used by Microsoft in order to create some new news: as an attempt to be viewed as creating something new rather than just going head-to-head with Google.  But that's exactly what Microsoft is doing.

The Wolfram Alpha product may not be quite there yet, but it takes us much more into the area of decision engines and its evolution will be much more interesting and important to watch.