As ITV considers unloading Friends Reunited for a knockdown price the future looks uncertain to bleak for the one time darling of the UK internet scene, which has long been superseded by more nimble rivals.One of a number of things is going to happen to Friends Reunited: it will either shrivel into insignificance; it will be bought by someone without the ideas to continue it as a niche business that quietly ticks over; or it could be bought by someone bigger who can potentially grow it.Given AOL's recent experience with Bebo the chances of the latter happening seems slim. Bebo was a much more powerful social media brand than Friends Reunited, but that too has suffered and underperformed.Bebo's value is thought to have fallen by as much as 75% with AOL originally paying $850m and is now reported to be worth as little as $200m.If similar maths were applied to ITV's Friends Reunited the £175m it paid for the site at the end of 2005 (which at the time represented a multiple of more than eight times its annual turnover) it would be worth as little as £40m. A figure that some think is not far off what it will be sold for.Even when ITV bought Friends Reunited it had passed its heyday. In 2004/05 the national press was full of Friends Reunited stories. Marriages were falling apart and couples were divorcing as old school flames got back together courtesy of Friends Reunited.That publicity brought massive growth in the same way we have since seen with Facebook and Twitter, but it has not come again as the strategy behind Friends Reunited failed to quickly adapt to a fast changing market. The next generation of users, after that rush of bored marrieds looking for affairs, didn't log on to Friends Reunited like their older relatives. No, instead they logged on to Facebook or MySpace and bypassed Friends Reunited altogether and pretty much sealing its fate. To be fair MySpace and Facebook had on their sides global scale and a multifarious offering, which came from fact that their arrival kickstarted the explosion in social media. Facebook and MySpace defined that space. It was at that moment Friends Reunited should have relaunched and ridden the wave, but it didn't (doesn't hindsight rock) and it wasn't until last summer that it did finally revamp, redesign and go free. I'm pretty sure it was all too little too late and its spin-off sites like dating/genes are bit part players in their markets. As I look at it today, of the long list of suggested school/college friends on the site I am presented with, none of whom have filled in any details on their profiles indicating that while many people visit the site (at one point) fewer spend time on the site or return quickly. I don't click on any as there is nothing to see. I leave and I move on. Add to that the fact that no one talks about Friends Reunited. It simply never comes up in conversation. I am not a huge Facebook user either, but I get new friends and invites as well as various bits of activity related to the site and my profile regularly. I am currently organising a stag weekend and everyone is on Facebook. It is the natural space to do that kind of activity. Friends Reunited simply doesn't enter into the conversation.The arrival of Twitter is further bad news for Friends Reunited as the more social networking sites that people are actively engaged with the less time they have to spend on rival sites. A site that you might have visited once a week/month falls off the radar. Friends Reunited is off of the radar. That blip is gone.If you are a Twitter user, say with a MySpace, Facebook and LinkedIn account; you maybe have MSN Messenger and Flickr to boot; with a Hotmail and Gmail account to manage as well; is there really time for Friends Reunited?It is a tough sell. There isn't the space or time in your average social media users life for Friends Reunited. That appears to be one of the things that ITV, like AOL, has realised, which means the future could well be very bleak unless someone can come up with a radical strategy to reinvigorate the business. Personally, I don't see it happening although niche survival remains an option.
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Social networks are like night clubs. They'll all fade away someday when the glamour and buzz has left the building. All that will remain will be a few bits of ram (fading memories), dead links (fogotten relationships) and nostalgia. And we'll all laugh fondly at the over priced entry requirement (time and effort wasted staring at a screen) when we could have been out in the fresh air holding hands and singing kumbaiyah :)
Facebook valued at €16bn, no sorry that was in 2007, no wait was it not €3.75bn in mid 2008, no, no, wait again I believe the latest figure is €1.3bn. One word expresses my concern, meh!
in response to John's comments - I think the same about Twitter, but I think the bigger social networks have become too much of a lifestyle now. Especially with the added ease of use that iPhone apps and suchlike have brought. The "time and effort" argument barely holds when the main interaction you have is one click on your phone, check your network's status updates and move on.
As for Friends Reunited - it was very much of its time and did a pretty good job of harnessing the connective power of the web. It simply hasn't moved on though. Friends are now reunited, and most have realised why they lost touch in the first place.
I struggle to see a place for it going forward. I thought at the time, and still do, that it was a ridiculous, ill-fitting purchase for ITV.
Simon I think you summed it up pretty well with your " Friends are now reunited" line. That's in and the site's problem.
Gordon Macmillan
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