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Is Facebook over? 

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I don't mean completely over, but a little bit. The flash mob has moved on, weighed down by vampire and movie quiz knowledge. That seems to be what today's statistics are showing as for the first time the numbers head down and not up.
As we reported on Brand Republic earlier, Facebook has suffered a decline in unique users in the UK for the first time since July 2006, falling 5% to 8.5m users, according to Nielsen Online.

It is not the first fall. I imagine next month will see another drop although Facebook says the figures do not match with its own. The drop comes after numerous articles in magazines and newspapers where journalists talk about their new -found disaffection for 2007's social media phenomenon.

I know, only 2007. It seems so much longer ago. Maybe social networking years are like dog years and, you know, last year we all spent seven years social networking and trying to win as many friends as possible and sign up for the most stupid applications ever, many of which never got used.

The research says people are tiring of the sites and of Facebook in particularly. There have been posts on the Brand Republic forums about this, as well as the many articles about people cancelling their accounts. The most recent I read was in the Sunday Times Style section at the weekend.

I still use mine quite a bit, but not as much as that first rush, but I also use it for work as we tend to write about it so, while quite bored of the applications and invitations to quiz or take tests, I won't be deleting my account.

I have sort of given up tracking people down and adding friends as I realise that many of the people I diligently found or got found by I don't have a relationship with beyond being Facebook pals.

That said, I have already cancelled my MySpace account as I never looked at it and the idea of lots of personal data floating around the webverse is an increasingly uncomfortable one.

All this said, I'm sure that social media will continue to flourish and mutate with new sites and new adaptations arriving on the scene. We reported today about the arrival of Studyvox, a social networking site for students.

This could almost be seen as a reaction against the generic nature of sites likes Facebook, which ironically started out as a site for students. I'm sure it is not the first to focus on niche communities.

This is where sites like Brand Republic itself should be if they continue to progress extending the natural community of readers and industry figures.

So are you parting company with Facebook or hanging around, but just declining those invitations to become a dark Lord of the Sith or a Jedi Knight (OK, I admit I signed up for this, but could never get it to work... whatever work means)?
Published Feb 21 2008, 04:05 PM by Gordon Macmillan
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Comments

by Jonathan Rigby
February 21, 2008 4:42 PM
 
Specialist social networking sites are the future. LinkedIn for business networking, Studyvox - I bet there's also Dogbook, Catbook, BayCityRollersSpace in the pipeline - basically anyone with a fetish or interest will start to gather together in tighter social units. There's also mobile social networking on the horizon built around smaller friendship and interest groups. Zygo is in Beta for example - it looks like a neat way of keeping friends constantly connected. I've got to unsubscribe from Facebook. The sheer number of emails, zombie requests, pokes, superwall notifications is doing my head in.
 
 
by Duncan James
February 21, 2008 4:49 PM
 
I agree. I think signing up to more relevant life stage/outlook/interest based sites will increase but I also do think that people will not 'suicide' their old oens because you never know when you might need to reach that old school buddy (facebook), travelling friend (Where are you now?), music afficionado (?) etc. As a result we will be at the hub of potentially 5-10 sites all revolving around our own individual tastes. Question is, will FB be the 'generic' one we all share? I think it will for some who joined early on and have amassed a frankly useful contacts book from it.
 
 
by Daniel Farey-Jones
February 21, 2008 5:38 PM
 
It's only fair on Facebook to point out today's figures also showed MySpace and Bebo have fallen over the quarter. And the real casualties are Friends Reunited, down 47% year on year, and Piczo, down 56% year on year. Watch out for BBC Communities - up 52% to 1.9m and overtaking Friends Reunited.
 
 
by Will Callaghan
February 21, 2008 8:59 PM
 
Agree on the zombie requests - I bin them unopened. I visit Facebook maybe once a fortnight to check on emails and have no plans to use it more or less. Aren't we coming full circle? I launched a community for (mainly) fitness types for Men's Health seven years ago and it's funny to think that web thinking circa 2000 is fashionable again. The Mansized.co.uk site I launched two years ago is aimed at a wider audience of smart men but it's interesting to see (and not surprising) that readers form their own verticals within our pages. It'd like to know what advertisers make of Facebook's slight drop in traffic. Will they jump off the bandwagon as quickly as they jumped on? Perhaps it's time to get back to the old school conversation about demographics and loyalty to brands because of the specific content they produce and feelings they engender.
 
 
by Darren Davidson
February 22, 2008 8:35 AM
 
Facebook will still grow, make money and be used by millions. It's biggest legacy might be introducing people to social networking. I think what you'll now see is many of these people move on to more specialist networking sites - those that appear to be about something other than just socialising... Flickr, Imeem, LinkedIn, WAYN, A Small World, Dopplr and FFFFound. These are the sites set to prosper in 2008.
 
 
by N PERKIN
February 22, 2008 10:03 AM
 
I agree with Darren. It's a bit premature to be talking about the death of Facebook but there's no doubt they've got their work cut out keeping it interesting for the users. And yes specialist networks will be the next big growth area - both the ones Darren lists (which are all good) and special interest ones.
 
 
by N PERKIN
February 22, 2008 10:05 AM
 
One more thing - yes Brand Republic has a future as a community but you need to open up your site and engage with some of the other ad bloggers out there. Keeping your comments behind a registration wall and not allowing direct linking to outside blogs is a tad frustrating. The future is open.
 
 
by CF
February 22, 2008 10:15 AM
 
Agree about the specialist social networks - places like Ravelry are getting massively popular. But just as Facebook opened itself up to apps, if there was to be a degree of compatability between facebook and other niche networks like Ravelry then the landscape could change again.
 
 
by Gordon Macmillan
February 22, 2008 11:18 AM
 
Agreed specialist sites with a place for generic social networking sites as well - but opening those up could change things radically.
 
 
by gotnoteef
February 22, 2008 11:42 AM
 
This might be a really dumb question - please forgive me, as I have all the technical skill of a flip-flop - but: how do 'niche' social networks differ from existing community forums? For instance, I use the Radbmx.co.uk forums to keep up with a few people I know (from real-world and online) who are also sad old fellas still riding BMX bikes fromt he 80s. I can use the site to chat - real-time if they are online or through posting messages; I can get technical info and assistance from the site 'oracles'; I can buy, sell and trade parts; or just get in on a bit of light banter - all with people who share my interest in this specific area. They may think that the Mk1 Golf is a pile of cr*p old car from the 80s (they'd be wrong!) but as this is not generally a topic of conversation any disagreements are avoided and the mainstay of chat focuses on the bikes, the bits, riding and tales of falling off. So what will be different about the 'exciting' new niche social netwroks - aren't they already in place and thriving if you look for them?
 
 
by Jennifer Short
February 22, 2008 12:30 PM
 
I used to go on Facebook everyday. Today was the first time I visited it in two weeks so I feel partially responsible for it's decline in traffic, having said that I don't feel guilty. Let's faceit, it is an inevitability that the novelty wears off and this interestingly coincides when the advertisers think they are on to something good....
 
 
by Will Callaghan
February 22, 2008 12:44 PM
 
Agree Adam, scroll up to my point. Niche social networking is essentially the same as a forum with a few technical whistles and bells added on (friends, maybe groups and the like) Funny how fashions change
 
 
by N PERKIN
February 22, 2008 3:03 PM
 
What do mean Gordon about opening specialist sites up? Most are open already aren't they (and if they're not they should be)? When you say it could change things radically do you mean for the better or for the worse?
 
 
by Gordon Macmillan
February 22, 2008 3:08 PM
 
Yes for the better. i agree Facebook is going to stick around, but it would make life a lot easier and useful if it offered interoperability with other sites and services. There are as people here have pointed out specialist sites, but i think there are more to come.
 
 
by Gordon Macmillan
February 25, 2008 10:03 AM
 
Talking of which the FT announced this today. FT LAUNCHES TELECOMS MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY EXECUTIVE MEMBERSHIP FORUM http://www.ftexecutiveforums.com/technology LONDON, 25 February 2008: The Financial Times has launched an exclusive membership forum for media and technology executives to be able to make and maintain contact with peers and luminaries operating within the digital, new media, mobile and telecoms sectors. Members of the media and technology executive forum will benefit from: * Searching and contacting fellow members using the online networking tool * Complimentary passes for any conference from the FT's exclusive Global Conferences and Events portfolio * Access to all FT conferences' speaker presentations and podcasts * Access to exclusive face-to-face members' networking events * A 12-month premium subscription to FT.com The Telecoms Media and Technology Executive Membership Forum is the first in a series of membership forums to be launched, with groups for the luxury goods and property sectors to follow later this year.
 
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Gordon Macmillan

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