How much would you accept in lieu of the chance to spin a coin to win a million? Ten pounds? One hundred? A grand... ten... a hundred (grand)? I might just be getting warm. What I do know is that I wouldn't have to raise you to the statistical outcome, which is half a million. Most folk would probably take a much smaller guaranteed sum, rather than risk getting nothing. This is the Cardinal Utility Principle, and is a very handy piece of knowledge if you're in the business of incentivising people. Thus I thought it was strange when I read that a part-time shop-assistant had mistakenly sold a batch of valuable medals (priced at £1850) for the princely sum of £18.50! Okay - nothing exactly strange about that - just a genuine mistake - but what did puzzle me was that the shopkeeper, on arriving back from his lunch to discover his loss, promptly advertised a £250 reward for the purchasers to return the goods! Call me cynical, but I just get the feeling that this particular incentive isn't going to work.
